AUSTIN, Texas — As the smoke clears from the 2025 postseason, the eyes of the college football world have already fixed their gaze on the Forty Acres. The reason? Arch Manning is officially coming back for his junior season. With a Heisman-caliber stat line from last year and the keys to the most explosive offense in the SEC, Texas enters 2026 with “National Championship or Bust” expectations.
The Odds: Betting on the Burnt Orange
Early 2026 futures have the Longhorns sitting near the top of the board. According to BMR Sports Betting, Texas is currently listed at +550 to win the National Championship, trailing only Ohio State (+450) and Georgia (+600). The oddsmakers at TodaysLines are clearly believers in Steve Sarkisian’s ability to reload rather than rebuild.
For those looking at the regular season, the early Win Total Over/Under is set at 10.5. This reflects a high floor for a team returning a superstar quarterback, but it’s a Statfox number that leaves very little room for error in a conference where every Saturday is a fistfight.
Navigating the 2026 SEC Gauntlet
The honeymoon phase of Texas joining the SEC is officially over; now, it’s just about the grind. The 2026 schedule is arguably the toughest of the Sarkisian era. It features a marquee non-conference rematch against Ohio State in Austin—a game that will undoubtedly serve as a preview for the 12-team playoff.
The road schedule is where things get truly daunting. The Longhorns must travel to Neyland Stadium to face Tennessee in late September and conclude the season with a trip to Death Valley and the Lone Star Showdown at Kyle Field. To hit the “Over” on that 10.5-win total, Texas will have to win at least two of those three hostile road games.
Transfer Portal: Searching for Defensive Identity
While the Manning-led offense is expected to put up video-game numbers, the roster has some “Portal Priority” areas that need immediate attention according to the Rx forum.
- Running Back: With Tre Wisner (Florida State) and Jerrick Gibson (Purdue) departing via the portal, Texas is suddenly thin at RB. Expect Sarkisian to hunt for a veteran power back to pair with rising star Christian Clark.
- Defensive Line: The Longhorns lost several key pieces of their interior rotation. Finding a 300-pound run-stuffer to handle the SEC’s physical offensive lines is a non-negotiable for defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski.
- Secondary: After the departure of key veterans in the backend, Texas is looking for a plug-and-play safety who can mirror the communication skills of the 2025 squad.
2026 OddsTrader Texas Longhorns Schedule & Predictions
| Date | Opponent | Location | Prediction |
| Sept 5 | Texas State | Austin, TX | WIN (1-0) |
| Sept 12 | Ohio State | Austin, TX | WIN (2-0) |
| Sept 19 | UTSA | Austin, TX | WIN (3-0) |
| Sept 26 | at Tennessee | Knoxville, TN | LOSS (3-1) |
| Oct 10 | vs. Oklahoma | Dallas, TX | WIN (4-1) |
| Oct 17 | Florida | Austin, TX | WIN (5-1) |
| Oct 24 | Ole Miss | Austin, TX | WIN (6-1) |
| Oct 31 | Mississippi State | Austin, TX | WIN (7-1) |
| Nov 7 | at Missouri | Columbia, MO | WIN (8-1) |
| Nov 14 | at LSU | Baton Rouge, La | LOSS (8-2) |
| Nov 21 | Arkansas | Austin, TX | WIN (9-2) |
| Nov 27 | at Texas A&M | College Station, TX | WIN (10-2) |
Final Projected Record: 10-2 (SEC: 6-2)
The road losses to Tennessee and LSU are predictable stumbles in two of the loudest environments in sports, but a 10-2 record should be more than enough to secure an at-large bid in the expanded College Football Playoff. If Manning stays healthy and the portal additions on the defensive line hit, don’t be surprised if this team is playing in Miami come January.
Longhorns Set to Ignite in 2026
This video provides an in-depth breakdown of the breakout players expected to assist Arch Manning during the 2026 campaign.
