The NFL’s experiment with seventh seeds hasn’t been a hit. They’ve only won 1 game out of 9 in the last five years.
Many games feel like preseason matches, with starters playing only three quarters. The 2023 Packers were the only seventh seed to win a game before being eliminated.
This year, Green Bay was the last team in the NFC, facing Philadelphia. They didn’t look out of place, unlike me at a Taylor Swift concert. The AFC side wasn’t any better, with Denver’s lead disappearing quickly.
So, should we expand to a 16-team playoff in 2025 or stick with twelve teams? I think we should go for more games. After all, if we’re going to have games that don’t matter, let’s have more of them!
Stars/Stats
If December upsets were a cryptocurrency, I’d short them harder than FTX stock. The data shows a cool paradox. Teams that seem strong in September often fall apart when it gets cold. But teams that were struggling find their strength just in time.
Here are some stats that went against what we thought:
- 2010 Packers (10-6): Started as a 6th seed but won Super Bowl XLV
- 2007 Patriots (16-0): Perfect until the Giants beat them in the Super Bowl
- 2013 Seahawks (13-3): Dominant in December but lost big in the Super Bowl
The numbers show that late-season momentum can cause big upsets. The current playoff format barely holds it all in. Even though 7th seeds have a bad record, maybe we’re not giving them enough chances to shine in December.
Imagine a team that went 4-0 in December but missed the playoffs. They might be more dangerous than a division winner who faltered at the end. The stats suggest we might be missing the hottest teams at the most important time.
These December upsets make us rethink what we know about the playoffs. A 10-6 team that peaked late might be more dangerous than a 13-3 team with cracks. The data makes us question everything about playoff readiness.
TV Win
The real victory isn’t in ratings—it’s in admitting our current playoff format is dull. College football is already talking about a 12-team playoff. We’re debating if 14 is too many.
A new format isn’t just about adding teams. It’s about making December games exciting. First-round byes for top seeds, meaningful matchups, and stakes beyond draft positions—it’s time we steal a page from college football’s playbook.
Imagine a 16-team playoff. Every game matters. Cinderella stories emerge. We might even avoid another Patriots/Chiefs AFC title game rerun. The question isn’t whether we need a new format, but if we’re brave enough to try one that actually works.
